First things first. The Shortlist:
Milkman by Anna Burns (Graywolf)
Washington Black by Esi Edugyan (Knopf)
Everything Under by Daisy Johnson (Graywolf)
The Mars Room by Rachel Kushner (Scribner)
The Overstory by Richard Powers (Norton)
The Long Take by Robin Robertson (Knopf)
This is the first year in three that I haven't finished the entire shortlist. One book, Robin Robertson's The Long Take is not available in Canada until the end of the month and attempts to order it from the UK had to be hastily stopped. Richard Power's The Overstory, a 500+ page door stopper about trees, interests me but I wasn't ready to commit.
So saying that take my opinions about who I think will win with the caveat that I cannot judge the books solely on literary merit, not that this is the only consideration taken into account anyways.
I must say, that this feels like a weaker year than last. I gave 6 books from last five stars on Goodreads and this year none. Also, the two books from the longlist that appeared to resonate most, Sally Rooney's Normal People and Guy Gunaratne's In Our Mad and Furious City, did not even make the final list. So we are left with these six, most of which have not built loyal armies of readers.
I'll also say that this year is one of the most unpredictable years since I started following closely. In 2015 it was clear that the award was going to be won by either A Little Life or A Brief History of Seven Killings. In 2017, Do Not Say We Have Nothing and The Sellout stood above the rest. Last year, Lincoln in the Bardo was the favourite both among bookies and critics. Although The Overstory is the bookies choice this year, one would not be totally stunned if any of the other books were to be named the winner.
Other issues that are informing the conversation this year is the fact that there has not been a woman victor since Eleanor Catton won for her breathtaking tome The Luminaries. Nor has there been a UK winner since Hilary Mantel won her second Booker Prize for Bring Up The Bodies. Will a jury feel inclined to award a book that ends these streaks? Purely on a law of averages, betting on a woman author from the UK would make sense. That would seem to give Anna Burns and Daisy Johnson an advantage.
Another and even more suffocating issue is the presence of American authors on the list, the result of a rule change five years ago, a rule change that continues to be controversial and officially opposed by UK publishing. Considering the last two winners (Paul Beatty and George Saunders) were American, would a jury decide to blow up everyone's head and give the award to another American author?
In terms of literary merit questions, of those I read, Washington Black felt like the most accomplished work, delving deep into thematic questions of freedom and the black experience in freedom all in the context of a compelling work of historical fiction. I also quite enjoyed Daisy Johnson's Everything Under, a chilling but very fresh retelling of the Oedipus myth and Rachel Kushner's women's prison drama, The Mars Room. Both brought such strong atmosphere and voice. Although many loved Milkman, I felt it to be such an exhausting reading experience. Set in the Troubles in Northern Ireland and told in a experimental style of dense, run-on sentences that leaves the reader few moments to catch their breath, I could imagine that its victory tomorrow will result in many people picking up the book and putting it down just as quickly.
Of the two that I have not read, they both appear to have significant merits behind them. Power's book is the best reviewed on Goodreads and appears to have wowed those who managed to get through it. But it's Americaness will certainly be hard to overcome this year. The Long Take is a arguably a long form poem and its inclusion on the list speaks to the Booker prize pushing the limits of what is a novel. It also seems to be a beautifully constructed narrative and I will definitely pick it up when available. But will it be too much for the Booker to award a work that would not be deemed a novel by most readers? The Prize does not need to be beholden to the lowest common denominator reader, but one shouldn't be too contemptuous either.
Anyways, here is my prediction (a foolish endeavour but nonetheless):
Who Will Win: Washington Black
Who May Win: Milkman
Dark Horse: The Long Take
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