Madeleine Thien Will Win The Booker: My Hot Take of Today's Shortlist

So the Man Booker Prize has released its shortlist and there are many surprises, particularly the exclusion of My Name is Lucy Barton by Elizabeth Strout. Instead, the jury provided the following books as finalists:

The Sellout by Paul Beatty (Oneworld)

Hot Milk by Deborah Levy (Hamish Hamilton)

His Bloody Project by Graeme Macrae Burnet (Saraband)

Eileen by Ottessa Moshfegh (Vintage)

All That Man Is by David Szalay (Vintage)

Do Not Say We Have Nothing by Madeleine Thien (Granta)

The list is impressive. The Sellout was a huge critical hit in the United States last year, winning the National Book Critics Circle Award and the Tournament of Books. Hot Milk's author is probably the best known in the UK, as Deborah Levy has been shortlisted in the past. Eileen had prominent attention last year, including being shortlisted for the NBCC award. I hadn't heard of All That Man Is but there are some suggesting it is one of the favourites, although the claim made that "the time might just be right for David Szalay’s thoughtful portrait of masculinity" is absurd, as if what art is really missing are "thoughtful portraits of masculinity."

My pick, however, is Do Not Say We Have Nothing, by Madeleine Thien. Thien is a Canadian author of several books who has a strong reputation in this country but this is her first large international exposure.  This shortlisting will certainly give her a bump in sales and expose her to new readers (including myself, who recently bought the book and it is next on my TBR).

So my reasons are as follows, that touch upon both the specific quality of the books and the politics of the award as a whole:

1. Thien's seems to be the most meaty and ambitious of the books on the list. It's a multi-generational story of the consequences of the Cultural Revolution and the Tienanmen Square Massacre and the lasting psychological impact of those events extends beyond the direct victims. Looking at recent winners such as The Luminaries, A Brief History of Seven Killings, The Narrow Road of the Deep North, Wolf Hall/Bringing Up The Bodies etc, the Booker likes to award big books that offer unique narratives of historical experiences. 

2. Two of the books shortlisted are thrillers of a type. Eileen is a psychological thriller about a young woman dealing with an emotionally abusive invalid father and His Bloody Project appears to be a bit of a historical murder mystery. I appreciate when awards offer openings for genre fiction, but I doubt that it will elevate one to winner. Although The Luminaries also had thriller elements to it, it was also really ambitious structurally and had a literary quality that made it more palatable to the selection committee.

3. Paul Beatty's book was amazing and I don't want to sell it short. It's an example of how stinging and hilarious satire can be and will continue to find readers laughing out loud for years to come. That said, the themes are really American, dealing with very particular issues and experiences that are unique to the historical problems of "post-racial" United States (fyi it's not post-racial, that's the whole point of the book). Although the Booker opened itself to American authors a few years ago, I don't think the first winner will be a book that feels so American. Eileen would be a more likely choice than The Sellout for this reason.

4. David Szalay's book is a collection of short stories, although interlinked. The Booker very rarely goes to short story and that will hinder it. Also, a book about takes on masculinity? The last two Booker winners have been men (although one gay man) so not sure it's in the cards for a third straight man let alone a book that deals with over explored issues of maleness. 

5. I think there is a good chance for a woman winner this year. I'd say Thien and Levy are the front runners. They each have their own things to overcome. Thien's book has kind of snuck up on the competition, not having been reviewed in many British newspapers or the NY Times. That said, it will now so maybe a buzz around it as something fresh and discovered will motivate the judges. Levy is a more known quantity, but Hot Milk has received good but not gushing reviews and its Goodreads rating is pretty low for a book expected to win this prize.

Last year I predicted correctly Marlon Jame's amazing A Brief History of Seven Killings would walk away with the award. It was so ambitious and fun and dark and the writing challenging but fun. I haven't read Thien's book yet (next couple of weeks, promise), so I can't comment on the writing, but it feels like a proper Booker book and I think it'll pull it off. 

National Book Awards

So book award season is fast upon us.

A few weeks ago we got the Man Booker Long List, which I found mostly disappointing, although I am hopeful that Canadian author Madeleine Thien's novel Do Not Say We Have Nothing (which is waiting patiently on my Kobo) gets shortlisted, even though the odds makers seem to suggest it won't be. 

Last week, we got the Scotia Bank Giller Prize Long List, which also included Thien's book as well as several interesting titles by the likes of Emma Donoghue, Mona Awad,  and Steven Price. It's actually a stronger list than the Booker in my opinion. 

Next week, we get the Booker shortlist and most pertinent to this post is the release of the National Book Award fiction long list on September 15. Similar to the Pulitzer, this award is reserved for American authors. However, there is no "American character" requirement in the NBA's award criteria, so theoretically it is a broader award (although the Pulitzer hasn't rigidly followed this requirement in recent years). 

Frankly, it isn't my favourite award and I have not been particularly a fan of recent selections. Last year's winner was Adam Johnson's short story collection, Fortune Smiles, which was decent but not as emotionally powerful or important as finalist A Little Life. Johnson had won the Pulitzer only a couple of years prior for the excellent The Orphan Master's Son, so he really didn't need the award either.  

The year prior to that another short story collection, Phil Klay's Redeployment, won out. I haven't read the collection, partly because I had been disappointed with previous acclaimed books about Iraq and Afghanistan (TheYellow Birds was outright boring and Billy Lynn's Long Half Time Walk was/is overrated).

Prior to this, the NBA awarded some outstanding novels such as James McBride's The Good Lord Bird (which shamefully I have not read yet, although it sits in my ereader), Louise Erdrich's amazing The Round House, and and Jesmyn Ward's gut-wrenching tale of post-Katrina New Orlean's Salvage The Bones. 

So it's hit and miss for me, definitely not as dependable as the Pulitzer but maybe more open to acknowledging short stories, which is good in my opinion.

This year offers to be a great year, with the amount of high quality literature being released from American authors. I have a few books in mind that I am guessing will make the short list.

Firstly, the no brainer picks are Colson Whitehead's magically brilliant The Underground Railroad and Yaa Gyasi's powerful tale Homegoing, both having received deafening but well earned praise. They are both fantastic novels and I'd suggest they are the favourites to win this year's NBA.

Louise Erdich is back with the follow up novel to her previous award winning book. LaRose, about the accidental killing of a young boy and the consequences for the Native American families impacted has received a lot of attention. I haven't read it yet but I am confident it will make the long list. Her previous win probably makes it less likely that she'll capture the award this year but a short list is definitely in the cards.

Another strong contender will be Annie Proulx's Barkskins, a monumental tome about French Canadian logging family. It has also received very strong reviews and although the previous Pulitzer winner was surprisingly left off the Booker long list, I think she'll get in here.  

Other books I expect to see are Elizabeth Strout's My Name is Lucy Barton (which people seem to love but which I found tedious and uninspiring), Emma Kline's The Girls (again, I wasn't blown away but the edgy themes explored are the kind of think the NBA seems to like), and Brit Bennet's The Mothers (which should get in based on its beautiful cover alone). 

Possible dark horses that I would like to see included are Emma Straub's endearing Modern Lovers and Stephanie Danler's hilariously sharp book about server culture Sweetbitter. These may feel less profound and important than the othe novelss but they were tons of fun to read and the writing outstanding. 

Two books that I haven't read that may get a look on the long list are also C.E. Morgan's The Sport of Kings and Nathan Hill's debut and very timely political novel, The Nix.

I'll make a follow up post to see how my predictions did.